Social Security

Introduction

Social Security’s long term financial outlook has again moved to the forefront with the release of the Congressional Budget Office’s 2026 long term projections and the Social Security Trustees’ latest annual assessment. Although the reports differ in methodology and some of their estimates, they point to the same fundamental challenge: under current law, the gap between Social Security’s scheduled benefits and the revenues available to finance them is projected to persist and generally widen over the decades ahead. This article examines the findings of CBO and the Trustees, supplemented by analysis from J.P. Morgan Asset Management, with particular attention to the projected depletion of trust fund reserves, the distinction between scheduled and payable benefits, the demographic and economic forces contributing to the financing gap, and what these projections actually mean, and do not mean, for the future of Social Security.

CBO’s 2026 Long Term Projections for Social Security

Introduction

For more than 70 million Americans, Social Security provides an essential source of retirement, disability, and survivor income. One of the program’s most important features is the annual Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA), which is intended to help benefits keep pace with inflation.

A recently introduced proposal in Congress the Social Security 2100 Act would make a significant change to the way future COLAs are calculated. According to a recent overview published by FinanceBuzz, the legislation would replace the current inflation index used for Social Security with one that many advocates believe more accurately reflects the spending patterns of older Americans. If enacted, retirees could receive modestly larger annual benefit increases over time.