Ecomomics

October 14, 2026

CBO’s Recent Publications and Work in Progress as September 30, 2026

“Over the past three months, the Congressional Budget Office has produced a variety of budget and economic analyses, cost estimates, and analytical products, thus fulfilling its core mission of supporting Congress during each stage of the legislative process. This newsletter is a companion to CBO’s Recent Publications and Work in Progress as of September 30, 2026, which offers a summary of recent publications and those scheduled to be released in the coming months.

CBO also regularly publishes presentations and budget and economic data, which can be found on the agency’s website, as well as models and code, which are posted on the agency’s Github page.To learn more about CBO, see An Introduction to the Congressional Budget Office.”

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August 27, 2026

Bill Gates on the Turbulent AI Era: Promise, Risk, and the Choices Ahead

by David Badertscher

Overview

In his August 26, 2026 essay, “The Turbulent AI Era Is Here. The Choices We Make Now Are Critical,” Bill Gates presents artificial intelligence as a technological transition potentially different in important respects from earlier waves of automation. AI can increasingly perform cognitive work, can spread rapidly through technologies and infrastructure already in widespread use, and can be accessed through ordinary language without requiring users to master specialized computer skills. Gates is not arguing against AI. On the contrary, he remains strongly optimistic about its potential in medicine, education, agriculture, scientific research, government services, clean energy, and assistance for people who otherwise lack access to specialized expertise. His concern is that these benefits will not necessarily be distributed fairly and that significant social and economic disruption could accompany them.

Gates identifies three major categories of concern:

August 5, 2026

A New Proposal Would Increase Social Security COLAs: What Retirees Should Know

by David Badertscher

Introduction

For more than 70 million Americans, Social Security provides an essential source of retirement, disability, and survivor income. One of the program’s most important features is the annual Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA), which is intended to help benefits keep pace with inflation.

A recently introduced proposal in Congress the Social Security 2100 Act would make a significant change to the way future COLAs are calculated. According to a recent overview published by FinanceBuzz, the legislation would replace the current inflation index used for Social Security with one that many advocates believe more accurately reflects the spending patterns of older Americans. If enacted, retirees could receive modestly larger annual benefit increases over time.

June 14, 2026

Understanding Budget Reconciliation: How Congress Fast Tracks Major Fiscal Legislation

by David Badertscher

Budget reconciliation is a special congressional procedure created by the Congressional Budget Act of 1974 that allows Congress to consider legislation affecting federal spending, revenues (taxes), and the debt limit under expedited procedures. Most notably, reconciliation bills can pass the Senate with a simple majority vote rather than the 60 votes normally needed to overcome a filibuster. As a result, reconciliation has become one of the most important tools for enacting major fiscal policy changes. The following is an overview of the congressional budget reconciliation process and a discussion of its importance to librarians, researchers, and the general public.

What Is Reconciliation?

Reconciliation is designed to align existing laws with the fiscal goals established in a congressional budget resolution. It can be used to:

June 12, 2026

Overview of Income Polarization Redux: NYC’s Wage Gains are (Again) Flowing to the Top

by David Badertscher

Source: Mohamed Obaidy, Associate Director, Economic Policy Team, Center for New York City Affairs (CNYCA), Income Polarization Redux: NYC’s Wage Gains Are (Again) Flowing to the Top (2026).

Introduction

In Income Polarization Redux: NYC’s Wage Gains Are (Again) Flowing to the Top, Mohamed Obaidy examines recent wage, employment, and productivity trends in New York City and concludes that economic gains are becoming increasingly concentrated among higher-income workers and higher-paying industries. While New York City’s economy continues to grow and workers are becoming more productive, the benefits of that growth are not being distributed evenly across the workforce.

May 20, 2026

Debt Without End? Examining America’s Long Term Fiscal Challenges

by David Badertscher

Few issues in American public life generate more political rhetoric, and less public consensus, than the growth of the national debt. Democrats and Republicans alike frequently accuse one another of fiscal irresponsibility, while voters struggle to determine which party has actually contributed more to the nation’s long-term debt burden.

Two recent sources help illuminate this debate from different perspectives: an article distributed by The Epoch Times and an analytical report published by Investopedia titled “Democrats vs. Republicans: Who Had More National Debt?” Together, these sources underscore both the political complexity and the historical nuance surrounding America’s growing fiscal challenges.

According to Investopedia, the United States national debt exceeded $38 trillion in 2025–2026, continuing a decades-long pattern of expansion under administrations of both political parties. The article notes that, when adjusted for inflation and measured per presidential term since 1913, Republican presidents have added slightly more debt on average than Democratic presidents: approximately $1.4 trillion per term versus $1.2 trillion for Democrats. However, Democratic presidents collectively added more total debt overall because Democrats occupied the White House for more years during the period studied.