Criminal Law Library Blog
Introduction
Social Security’s long term financial outlook has again moved to the forefront with the release of the Congressional Budget Office’s 2026 long term projections and the Social Security Trustees’ latest annual assessment. Although the reports differ in methodology and some of their estimates, they point to the same fundamental challenge: under current law, the gap between Social Security’s scheduled benefits and the revenues available to finance them is projected to persist and generally widen over the decades ahead. This article examines the findings of CBO and the Trustees, supplemented by analysis from J.P. Morgan Asset Management, with particular attention to the projected depletion of trust fund reserves, the distinction between scheduled and payable benefits, the demographic and economic forces contributing to the financing gap, and what these projections actually mean, and do not mean, for the future of Social Security.
CBO’s 2026 Long Term Projections for Social Security
On September 17, 2026, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office released its latest 75-year projections for Social Security. CBO projects that the gap between Social Security outlays and revenues will generally widen over the coming decades. Most significantly, CBO projects that the Old Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund will be exhausted in fiscal year 2032 if current law remains unchanged.
CBO: 2026 Long-Term Projections for Social Security
That date is important because OASI finances the retirement and survivor benefits received by most Social Security beneficiaries. Trust fund exhaustion, however, should not be confused with the disappearance or “bankruptcy” of Social Security. Payroll taxes would continue to flow into the program. The problem is that those continuing revenues would no longer be sufficient to pay 100 percent of scheduled benefits under current law.
The Trustees Reach a Similar Conclusion
The 2026 Social Security Trustees Report provides a closely related, although independently prepared, assessment. The Trustees project that the OASI Trust Fund can pay 100 percent of scheduled retirement and survivor benefits through the fourth quarter of 2032. At depletion, continuing income would be sufficient to cover approximately 78 percent of scheduled OASI benefits.
The Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund is in substantially stronger condition. The Trustees project that it can pay full scheduled benefits throughout the entire 75-year projection period, through at least 2100.
Although OASI and DI are legally separate trust funds, analysts frequently examine them together as OASDI to provide a picture of Social Security as a whole. If the two funds were combined, which would require a change in law, the Trustees project that combined reserves would be depleted in the third quarter of 2034. At that point, continuing income would cover approximately 83 percent of scheduled benefits, declining to about 65 percent by 2100 if no corrective legislation were enacted.
Social Security Administration and Medicare: 2026 Trustees Reports Summary–Note: the focus of this article is entirely about Social Security.
A Long-Term Financing Gap
The depletion date is only one measure of Social Security’s financial condition. Another important measure is the 75-year actuarial balance, essentially the difference between projected program income and costs over the long-range period.
The Trustees calculate a combined OASDI actuarial deficit equal to 4.42 percent of taxable payroll, compared with 3.82 percent in the 2025 report. Thus, the estimated long term financing gap increased substantially between the two reports.
The Trustees also project that Social Security’s combined cost will exceed total income in 2026 and continue to do so throughout the remainder of the 75-year projection period. For 2026 alone, combined OASDI cost is projected at approximately $1.697 trillion, compared with approximately $1.493 trillion in total income.
Why Has the Outlook Worsened?
Demographics remain central to the problem. The 2026 Trustees Report lowered its assumed ultimate fertility rate from 1.90 to 1.75 children per woman and reduced projected net immigration. Both changes mean fewer future workers and therefore slower growth in the taxable payroll supporting Social Security.
Federal tax law changes also affect the projections. The Trustees report that provisions enacted in 2025 reduce projected revenue from taxes on Social Security benefits, one source of income for the trust funds.
J.P. Morgan’s analysis places demographic changes in particularly understandable terms. It notes that there were approximately 5.1 workers supporting each Social Security beneficiary in 1960, compared with about 2.7 today, and projects that ratio at roughly 2.2 workers per beneficiary by 2045.
What Trust-Fund Exhaustion Actually Means
This distinction is particularly important. The projections do not say that Social Security will run out of money in 2032 and stop paying benefits.
Rather, the accumulated OASI reserves are projected to be depleted. Payroll-tax revenues and certain other revenues would continue. According to the Trustees, those continuing revenues would initially be sufficient to finance approximately 78 percent of scheduled OASI benefits.
J.P. Morgan therefore cautions against describing the program as simply “going bankrupt.” Its analysis emphasizes that trust fund depletion means exhaustion of accumulated reserves—not termination of Social Security or disappearance of its continuing revenue stream.
There is nevertheless an important legal and policy problem: absent legislation, continuing revenues would be insufficient to finance all benefits scheduled under existing law.
CBO and the Trustees: Why Their Numbers May Differ
CBO and the Social Security Trustees use different models and assumptions concerning demographics, economic growth, labor markets, mortality, fertility, immigration and other variables. Their projections therefore should not be expected to match precisely.
They nevertheless point in the same general direction. The retirement portion of Social Security faces a substantial financing shortfall beginning around 2032, and the gap between scheduled benefits and dedicated revenues persists over the long term. CBO’s newly released report similarly emphasizes that the difference between Social Security outlays and revenues generally widens over its 75-year projection period.
Putting the Projections in Perspective
The reports describe what would occur under their assumptions and if current law generally remains unchanged. They are not predictions that Congress will permit the projected reductions to occur.
There are numerous ways Congress could alter the financing equation, including changes affecting payroll tax revenues, the amount of earnings subject to Social Security taxation, benefit formulas, eligibility provisions, or combinations of revenue and benefit changes. The Trustees themselves emphasize that earlier legislative action would provide a broader range of options and more time to phase in changes.
J.P. Morgan similarly observes that Congress has modified Social Security substantially before, most notably through the 1983 reforms. Its commentary views the increasing actuarial deficit, not merely the movement of the depletion date, as an especially important development in the 2026 report.
Why Librarians, Researchers, and the General Public Should Care
The 2026 projections illustrate why careful use of terminology and primary sources is particularly important when discussing Social Security. Headlines stating that Social Security is “going broke,” “becoming insolvent,” or “running out of money” can obscure important distinctions among trust-fund depletion, continuing program revenues, scheduled benefits, and benefits payable under current law.
For librarians and researchers, the CBO projections and the Social Security Trustees Report provide authoritative primary sources against which news reports, commentary, and public policy claims can be evaluated. They also demonstrate why projections from different organizations should not automatically be treated as contradictory when their numbers differ. CBO and the Trustees employ different assumptions and methodologies, yet both identify a substantial long term financing imbalance.
For the public, these distinctions have practical importance. Trust fund depletion does not mean that Social Security payments would simply disappear. Payroll tax revenues would continue to finance a substantial portion of benefits. At the same time, the projections should not be minimized: without legislative changes, those continuing revenues would be insufficient to pay all benefits scheduled under current law.
Perhaps most important, long term projections are not predetermined outcomes. They are estimates based on demographic, economic, and legislative assumptions extending many decades into the future. Changes in fertility, immigration, wages, employment, economic growth, or federal law can materially alter the results. Understanding both the significance and the limitations of these projections can help researchers and the public distinguish between what the reports actually conclude and what may be interpretation, advocacy, or speculation about Social Security’s future.
Conclusion
Taken together, the CBO projections, Social Security Trustees Report, and J.P. Morgan analysis present a consistent warning, but not a prediction that Social Security will disappear. The immediate issue is the projected exhaustion of the OASI Trust Fund around 2032. Even after depletion, substantial payroll tax revenue would continue to support benefits, but it would not be sufficient to pay all benefits scheduled under current law.
Perhaps the most consequential development in the 2026 projections is therefore not simply the approaching depletion date. It is the persistent and, by some measures, worsening long term imbalance between Social Security’s scheduled obligations and the revenues dedicated to financing them. The ultimate consequences for beneficiaries will depend substantially on what legislative changes, if any, Congress makes before trust-fund reserves are exhausted.
Primary Sources and Additional Perspective
- Congressional Budget Office — CBO’s 2026 Long-Term Projections for Social Security — released September 17, 2026.
- Social Security Administration — 2026 Trustees Report Summary — official Trustees’ projections and explanation of trust-fund financing.
- Social Security Administration — Full 2026 OASDI Trustees Report — detailed assumptions, actuarial estimates, and tables.
- J.P. Morgan Asset Management — Social Security’s 2026 Trustee Report: Context, Clarity and the Path Ahead — retirement-planning perspective on the Trustees’ findings.