Financial Projections

March 18, 2026

USPS at a Crossroads: Congress Convenes Urgent Hearing on Its Financial Future

The House Subcommittee on Government Operations has now concluded its March 17, 2026 hearing on “Oversight of the United States Postal Service: The Financial Future Under Postmaster General David Steiner,” and the message emerging from Capitol Hill is unmistakable: the United States Postal Service (USPS) faces mounting financial pressure, and time to act may be running short. According to the Subcommittee’s official wrap-up, the Postal Service’s “already-troubled financial situation is getting worse,” prompting renewed concern over whether the agency can remain viable without significant structural change.

A System Under Strain

Testimony before the Subcommittee underscored the scale of the challenge. Postmaster General David Steiner pointed to a dramatic collapse in traditional mail volume, from 213 billion pieces annually at its peak to approximately 109 billion today, representing a loss of over 100 billion pieces of mail and tens of billions in lost revenue. At the same time, while USPS has taken steps to increase revenue and reduce costs, those efforts have not kept pace with rising expenses. As the Government Accountability Office (GAO) emphasized, the current trajectory “is not sustainable,” with service performance declining even as costs continue to grow.

March 7, 2026

Immigration Data and Immigration Policy: Insights From a New CBO Report

by David Badertscher

Overview of the CBO Report

Congressional Budget Office — Immigrant Earnings Assimilation, 1981–2021 (Report No. 62202, March 2026)

The report analyzes how immigrants’ earnings evolve after arriving in the United States and how closely their wages eventually approach those of U.S. born workers. Using several decades of census and survey data, the CBO examines the economic process known as “earnings assimilation”, the extent to which immigrants’ wages increase with time spent in the U.S. labor market.

February 28, 2026

H.R. 2675, Protecting Our Courts from Foreign Manipulation Act

by David Badertscher

As ordered by the House Committee on the Judiciary on November 20, 2025.

Cost estimate by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) February 27, 2026:*

H.R. 2675 would make it unlawful for a foreign state or sovereign wealth fund to directly or indirectly fund a civil lawsuit in the United States in which it is not a named party. The changes would apply to both pending and future civil actions. The bill would increase disclosure and certification requirements on litigants in cases where foreign sponsors or entities have interests at stake. H.R. 2675 also would require the Attorney General to report annually to the Congress on activities involving foreign funding of third-party litigation.

November 28, 2025

Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Update: Tariffs, Revenues and the Federal Defecit–What the Latest Numbers Show

by David Badertscher

An Update from the Congressional Budget Office. *

INTRODUCTION:

The Congressional Budget Office’s November 2025 update shows that rapidly changing tariff policies have significantly reshaped federal budget projections. As of mid November, the effective U.S. tariff rate is about 14 percentage points higher than a year earlier, and CBO now estimates that tariffs implemented in 2025 could reduce federal deficits by roughly $3.0 trillion over the next decade, including lower interest costs. The report explains why these estimates are smaller than earlier projections, highlights exemptions and policy shifts affecting major trading partners. It also underscores the considerable uncertainty surrounding the long term fiscal and economic effects of today’s unprecedented tariff levels.