CBO’s Baseline Projections of Federal Subsidies for Health Insurance

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A Congressional Budget Office (CBO) presentation by Phill Swagel, Sean Dunbar, Sarah Masi, and Sarah Sajewski on May 11, 2026

SUMMARY:

“This presentation describes CBO’s February 2026 projections of federal subsidies for health insurance, with a focus on Medicare, Medicaid, and premium tax credits. Projected enrollments in those and other programs are discussed, as are the factors that prompted changes to CBO’s projections since January 2025.”

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